Chances and Coincidences Science

Yesterday I talked about jinxes, originally inspired by the new X-Files series, and how I felt blamed as an outsider (by the way, The Pretty Reckless have a great song called Blame Me,).

The jinx creators think they’re clever passing on their bad decisions, and ‘bad luck’ to a jinx, so they can maintain their egos for themselves and/or their collective ego, such as team they support, or regional identity. However, French 18th century scientist Pierre Laplace considered relying on chance ‘merely a measure of our ignorance’.

Egotism and localism is as true in Wales as it is in Yorkshire, and I think it is the same everywhere. Some places and cultures are probably more or less extreme, and there are usually people within them who are more or less extreme. I think the longer line of ancestry you have in one place, and the less time you spend away from that place, the more you’re likely to take pride in that place, and hence your desire to defend it, and blame others for its weaknesses or losses. However, some people can become more extreme in a new place, in a desire to be accepted or feel as if they’re fitting in. I think local pride is a good thing, whereas local fascism is bad. The latter can be good for those who do it though, as a defence mechanism, but bad for those who suffer it.

Funnily enough, in last night’s episode of Brain they talked about how propaganda demonises the outsiders, and how that can lead to murder and genocide. That coincidence leads on to the rest of this blog.

Science of Chance

In Tails You Win: the Science of Chance they used calculations to work out the chances of coincidences happening. Just after half an hour into the documentary, Professor David Spiegelhalter passes through some great greenYgrey scenery on his way to a radio interview, where he explained that they’d wondered:

  • What are the chances of families having three children born in different years, but on the same day. As there are a million such three-children families in Britain, they calculated that there should be 8 such families, and they’ve found 3 of them.
  • Then he told how a family in France had been hit by rocks from a meteorite the previous year, which was unusual in itself, but it was made more bizarre by their name being Comet!

 

I think it was an amazing coincidence that the programme image was a great greenYgrey pose, but I shouldn’t really, because my theory is that they are the most commonest colours in the British landscape!:

My new book on Amazon contains lots of writer mind insights, perhaps providing the most revealing insight into the writing of an epic book by a doctor of philosophy: http://www.amazon.co.uk/XaW-Files-Beyond-Humanity-Fantasy/dp/1516969065/

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One thought on “Chances and Coincidences Science

  1. Pingback: Boulevard of Broken Dreams: Age not Jinx | greenygrey3

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